Iranian authorities are suspecting Israeli intelligence of orchestrating explosions and fires across their nation, calling into question why nothing appears to have gone amis in recent days.
Recently, Tehran has been plagued with incidents–ranging from fires at apartment buildings and factories to explosions at oil refineries–that have left it unsettled. While Iranian officials have blamed these incidents on aging infrastructure, numerous anonymous sources within Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) told The New York Times that Mossad sabotage may be behind these happenings. All Israel News (ATIN), The Times of Israel (TOI), and ynetnews all report of suspicious activity around these incidents.
European officials familiar with Iran’s internal assessments agreed with this assessment, characterizing these incidents as deliberate acts of espionage or psychological warfare designed to sow chaos and degrade critical infrastructure – including energy facilities – before moving on with their attacks against Iran, according to 24NEWS reports.
One of the most notable incidents was a fire at Abadan’s oil refinery on July 19, which resulted in one fatality and temporarily disrupted production, sparking suspicion across Tehran that clandestine attacks may be underway and increasing suspicion that Iran is under siege by outside actors. For more details about these attacks please read Omni, Ynetnews or The Jerusalem Post
Analysts speculate that Israel may have used covert disruption strategies similar to those seen at 2020 Natanz nuclear facility blasts attributed to cyber or physical strikes to cause these disturbances, similar to their longstanding strategy of covert disruption mirrored here by residential blocks, shoe factories and gas pipelines near major airports being affected. Analysts suspect this pattern echoes Israel’s longstanding strategy of covert disruption; analysts speculate this mirrors their covert strategy of covert disruption seen during past sabotage campaigns such as 2020 Natanz nuclear facility blasts which have been attributed to Israeli cyber or physical strikes attributed by these disturbances as seen with other incidents such as 2020 Natanz nuclear facility blasts attributable to Israeli cyber or physical strikes, similar to similar phenomena seen here and similar to past sabotage campaigns such as what took place during 2020 attributed by analysts. Analysts speculate this pattern matches Israel’s longstanding strategy of covert disruption that mirrors similar sabotage campaigns such as 2020 Natanz nuclear facility blasts which analysts attribute directly or physically strikes like those used against their targets by this country or cyber/physical strikes such as in 2020 Natanz nuclear facility blasts which occurred due to Israeli cyber or physical strikes before their target was compromised ynetnews +4 +4.
State-affiliated media have taken great care in reporting Iran’s “gas leak” explanation and its apparent prevalence, including by publishing skeptical takes like Tabnak that have pointed out an unusual frequency of gas-related incidents and public mistrust of Iran’s official story about this matter (Wikipedia +9 and The Jerusalem Post +9)
Iranian leadership has remained cautious about publicly accusing Israel, fearing this may enact obligatory retaliation under military doctrine. According to The New York Times’ reporting, Iranian officials stressed that their internal beliefs point toward external involvement; making public accusations would bring on further conflict and an increase in violence. All Israel News +3 This page could take up to 3 seconds of loading before showing results (excluding HTML formatting ).
These events come amid an intensified escalation since June’s Israeli-Iranian clash, during which Israel launched airstrikes against Iranian radar and missile sites, as well as operating drones inside Iran, crippling Iranian air defenses and missile infrastructure, according to reports. Wikipedia
Analysts speculate that recent disruptions are related to follow-up sabotage operations targeting energy and industrial assets.
International observers describe the events as evidence of modern “hybrid warfare”, using strikes, intelligence operations and cyber tactics against an adversary to destabilize them and destabilize their strategic capabilities and morale in a sustained campaign. Tehran appears to view Israel’s intervention as part of a long-term plan designed to undermine their strategic capabilities and undermine morale.
Iran has responded with increased security measures–doubling inspections at energy installations and increasing surveillance on civilian infrastructure, while raising air defense alerts; however, no public military response against Israel has yet been announced.
Analysts maintain Iran faces a challenging dilemma: openly accusing Israel risks backlash or further escalated tension, while trying to explain away incidents internally can diminish public trust with mounting speculation and outrage.
As Tehran seeks clarification, the vague nature of sabotage – including facility fires, possible cyber intrusion, and no official attribution–underscores an emerging shadow war between their two nations.