Recent announcements by India to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) and divert critical river water sources into its own regions have raised key questions: Is India capable of cutting off Pakistan’s lifeline, and could this spark conflict between the countries?
What India Is Doing
On April 23 – in response to a deadly militant attack in Indian-administered Kashmir – New Delhi announced it was suspending the 1960 International Water Treaty (IWT), which allocates three eastern rivers (Sutlej, Ravi and Beas) to India while allocating three western rivers (Indus, Jhelum and Chenab) to Pakistan (csmonitor.com, Wikipedia.org and Reuter’s).
Since that time, India has implemented infrastructure actions – such as flushing reservoirs and suspending flows at Baglihar Dam on the Chenab – causing its suspension indefinite.
En.wikipedia.org.
India is planning a 113km inter-basin canal to redirect waters from Jammu & Kashmir into Indian states like Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan (sources: Yahoo News; En Wikipedia and Timesofindia respectively).
Home Minister Amit Shah recently made it clear that Pakistan would never see its treaty restored and would therefore lose access to this vital water resource, according to The Week and Economic Times India Times respectively. Pakistan currently poses an existential threat.
Pakistan relies heavily on western rivers for irrigation, drinking water and hydropower needs, according to Al Jazeera (aljazeera.com) csis (csis.org) and Reuter’s (reuters.com) sources.
Experts warn that any reduction–even maintenance related–could wreak havoc with Pakistan’s agriculture and rural economy, according to reports from reuters, the Guardian, Yahoo!.com etc.
Farmers in Punjab and Sindh have already expressed fears of “starvation” and “ruin”, while Islamabad has cautioned that any attempts at curtailing flows could be seen as acts of war (The Guardian.com; En.wikipedia.org and Times.co.uk are all reporting similar concerns).
Can India Physically Reduce Flows? Unfortunately not. Under the Treaty of Agra Fortinstan, India’s storage capacity on western rivers is only limited to 4.4 km3, insufficient to meaningfully restrict volume flowing into Pakistan from Indian rivers. Aljazeera.com +15 and CSIS +15 both report this. Also newarab.com reported similar issues.
World Bank-brokered treaty limits India’s ability to build large dams or diversion projects along the rivers Jhelum, Chenab, and Indus; for instance the Guardian reports (+3) as being limited. CSIS.org gives more detail and also lists an article by Wikipedia where this can be found: [see source link below]
However, water flowing through a proposed canal could gradually diminish Pakistan’s share of resources over time – signalling strategic intent more effectively than immediate blockage (The Times UK/ en.wikipedia/org/8/4/788/10/41)
What Could Trigger War? Pakistan saw the suspension of the treaty as a grave threat and warned ex-foreign minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari that war threshold has reached “an all-time low”, with any interference with water resources being treated similarly to a terrorist attack (nypost.com).
Analysts warn that even the mere threat of disrupting Pakistan’s water resources creates potentially deadly new battlefields between two nuclear-armed countries, India being more of an upper riparian status while Pakistan depends on downstream flows making water an effective geopolitical weapon.
Diplomatic Opportunities and Global Stakes Its Both nations’ leaders claim they seek peace. Indian officials question the treaty that allocates 80% of river flows to Pakistan and call for revision; Pakistan, on the other hand, appeals for international mediation through World Bank arbitration or UN involvement.
However, the World Bank’s role is limited and has survived even full-scale wars without new diplomatic mechanisms in place to respond. Without these safeguards in place, this crisis may undermine longstanding agreements that have prevented water wars in the past.
Final Outlook India does not yet possess the infrastructure for an all-out “water war,” yet recent moves by Pakistan to suspend a treaty, divert river flows, and cease data sharing are increasing tensions in an already dangerous game of brinkmanship. Given Pakistan’s dependence, water becomes an existential risk threatening national security.
Restrained action, transparent data-sharing and international mediation could prevent this incident from turning into an explosion of violence between India and Pakistan, but without these safeguards this could mark a dramatic transformation in their rivalry as water becomes the key source of tension instead of borders.